| Team | Position | Predicted | Delta | Abs. Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| Man City | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Chelsea | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 |
| Newcastle | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Villa | 6 | 7 | -1 | 1 |
| Nottingham Forest | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| Brighton | 8 | 9 | -1 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| Brentford | 10 | 12 | -2 | 2 |
| Fulham | 11 | 13 | -2 | 2 |
| Crystal Palace | 12 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| Everton | 13 | 11 | 2 | 2 |
| West Ham | 14 | 15 | -1 | 1 |
| Man United | 15 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Wolves | 16 | 18 | -2 | 2 |
| Spurs | 17 | 2 | 15 | 15 |
| Leicester City | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 |
| Ipswich Town | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| Southampton | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | -2 | 60 |
The top of the table was not drastically different than I predicted (Liverpool supporters will happily disagree; Gooners will sadly nod), other than my Second Season Ange Optimism applying to the Europa League win rather than the Premier League finish.
The bottom of the table was pretty close, too, with the main non-Spurs surprise being a midseason resurgence from Wolves.
If we look at the absolute value of my predicted finish vs actual finish, the biggest surprises (to me) were:
- Nottingham Forest: They kept winning and winning and winning with low block, defensively solid football that felt more lucky than sustainable, and so it was. The late season slip in form was more inevitable than it was a surprise. Typically, I would say that it is probably to their benefit to NOT make the Champion’s League (knowing that not a single supporter will agree with me), but the bottom of the league is So Bad, that probably Forest could have done a Spurs and finished just above the relegation places and had a rollicking time in Europe. As it is, they have the Conference League, and they have a very reasonable chance at winning it while finishing firmly mid-table again.
- Bournemouth: I’m only mentioning them because I was off by 7 places. I expected them to do worse without Solanke, but credit to Iraola and the recruitment team.
- Manchester United: they were bad. So bad that they sacked their manager mid-season and got worse. Rumors are that they’re about to spend 60m on a striker who massively over-performed his underlying numbers, so I expect them to be bad again next season. I hope it helps their supporters build character.
- Spurs: they were also bad. So bad that the supporters were calling for the manager to be sacked, but the saving grace was a run in the Europa League that culminated with a victory over Manchester United in the final that resulted in the first trophy in 17 years and the first European trophy in 41 years. Were the injuries the root cause of the poor league form? (Yes, imo.) Or was the manager’s dogged adherence to poor tactics the root cause? (No tactics will fix starting an 18 year old midfielder at centerback in the Premier League, imo.) Or did he, as he stated in a press conference after the Europa League win, write off the Premier League season to chase a winnable trophy? (Definitely.)
- The relegated teams: they were bad, but maybe the real story is the inequality between the Championship and the Premier League that makes it so difficult for the lower leagues to survive, never mind thrive. I don’t expect the Premier League to do much to help with said inequality, but the new independent regulator will have different ideas. We won’t see anything change this summer, but I’m mighty curious to see the report when it eventually emerges from Parliament.
Early thoughts on next season:
- City will win it
- Spurs will be top half
- Wolves will go down
- Burnley might stay up
- Leeds might go down
- Sunderland (bless them) are doomed
I’ll be back in August with another set of snarky predictions.
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