My predictions were, as expected, hit and miss. We’ll talk about Spurs below the table.
| Team | 2026-26 Actual | 2025-26 Predicted | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1 | 4 | I put them at 4th, more from hope than real expectation. With Liverpool and City both faltering, it was Arsenal’s season to win. It wasn’t pretty–especially on the set pieces–but it was effective |
| Manchester City | 2 | 2 | Nailed it. |
| Manchester United | 3 | 12 | They were massively better than I expected. My prediction of 12th was, in fact, miserly. |
| Aston Villa | 4 | 6 | They managed to do what Spurs couldn’t last season–win the Europa League while balancing the Premier League. This was an over-performance, but no one complains about those. Congrats, Priestley! |
| Liverpool | 5 | 1 | Salah finally dropped off, but Isak started poorly before getting injured and the rest of the squad couldn’t make up the difference. |
| Bournemouth | 6 | 10 | Really impressive work from Iraola and the new look defense. Can they do it again next season without Iraola? (I’m skeptical) |
| Sunderland | 7 | 20 | Unbelievable over-performance. The underlying numbers have them relegated, and instead they’ll be in the Europa League. The actual biggest surprise in the league. |
| Brighton | 8 | 8 | Nailed it. |
| Brentford | 9 | 9 | Nailed it. I was worried at the beginning of the season, but it turns out that their old manager was holding them back. |
| Chelsea | 10 | 3 | Repeating what I said before: If you spend a billion pounds, you should probably finish top 4. |
| Fulham | 11 | 13 | When mid-table is entirely satisfactory |
| Newcastle | 12 | 5 | When mid-table is a huge disappointment |
| Everton | 13 | 16 | They were indeed safe, and top half was too much of a stretch |
| Leeds | 14 | 17 | Not only did they survive, they could have been even higher in the mid-table. Great result for them. |
| Palace | 15 | 11 | If they win the Conference League tomorrow, they’ll be delighted. Otherwise, they’ll be mildly disappointed. This seems like a good finish given the rigors of playing twice a week. |
| Forest | 16 | 15 | They lost to Villa in the Europa League semi-final and ended the season about where I expected. Again, not a bad finish given the extra matches they had to play. |
| Spurs | 17 | 7 | I’ll talk about this one separately below, but to summarize in one word: shitshow |
| West Ham | 18 | 14 | They are bitterly disappointed and should be |
| Burnley | 19 | 19 | Nailed it |
| Wolves | 20 | 18 | Yep, being bad for a few years caught up to them, as predicted |
What a horrible, shambolic, maddening season for Tottenham Hotspur. After finishing 2024-25 in 17th and winning the Europa League, the board decided to sack their good vibes manager and restart with Discount Arteta (Thomas Frank). The Spurs board–led by the Lewis family heirs–sacked chairman Daniel Levy in September in what was probably the most seismic shift in the Premier League since Abu Dhabi oil money bought Manchester City. The reporting at the time and since was that Levy had a hand on every cog of the Spurs machine, and giving him the boot left many of those cogs wobbling and falling over.
Spurs early results were decent, but the underlying numbers were questionable even before the end of August: Spurs lost at home to Bournemouth and put up 0.19 xG. In September, Paulinha scored a goal in added time to salvage a point at abysmal Wolves. Despite winning 2-1 at Leeds, Spurs only put up 0.53 xG. The nadir might have been the 0-1 loss at home to Chelsea with 0.10 xG for Spurs and 3.68 for Chelsea, but to be honest it felt like the anchor was dragging on the bottom for most of the season.
Despite the poor performances, the board persisted. Thomas Frank was their guy. Things would surely improve, if only they gave him more time. Frank got the time, but the results in the league stayed bad. When every Spurs supporter and pundit in the world was saying “we need a midfielder who can pass,” the Spurs recruitment team brought in hard runner and dreamy-eyed midfielder Conor Gallagher on huge wages, who is not known for his passing. The club already had Bentancur, Sarr, and Gray, who had similar profiles. The board also sold the club’s highest goal scorer from 2024-25, only for the guy who had benched him to get hurt immediately after. And you might think that sale plus injury would encourage the board to buy or loan someone to help provide width and depth on the right side of the attack.
Wrong. The board persisted.
Frank stayed in the job into February, after the transfer window closed. Finally, the board made a move. A hard-nosed, defense-first Croatian manager in Igor Tudor. Who went winless in 7 before being sacked.
In the end, with 7 matches to play, Roberto De Zerbi joined for a king’s ransom. It was perhaps the one good call all season. The team looked better quickly. Results followed, culminating with survival in the league on the final day of the season.
It should have never been so close. At the beginning of the season, no one would have predicted another 17th place finish. When results were terrible and underlying numbers matched, Frank should have been gone. Maybe you give him November, but definitely before the transfer window opened in January. Then, in January, they should have been looking at the squad and asking where the needs were, not going after another midfield profile they already had in excess just because there was a “bargain” to be had.
Now, entering a summer in which much turnover is expected, most Spurs supporters are again feeling optimistic. The manager is undeniably good at his job, and expectations are that a new Director of Football will be joining, squad building will improve, and next season will be a return to competing towards the top of the league. I want to believe. What is sport if not denying the evidence, closing your eyes, and clinging to blind hope.